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ValeriusBeta - Not investment advice
Research · S&P 500 · Financials
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Price · last 3 months · daily close
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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
Earnings & returns
Diluted EPS: $10.20 (2022), $8.23 (2023), $12.35 (2024), $14.66 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
ROE (net income / common equity): 8.9% (2022), 7.7% (2023), 11.6% (2024), 14.4% (2025). Median 10.3%, lowest 7.7%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.
ROIC of 12.1%: operating income of $6.48B divided by $53.56B of capital (total assets $61.20B minus current liabilities $7.64B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.
Net margin of 30.5%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 70.9%, operating margin 44.8%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-equity of 0.43; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $15.75B, total cash $4.13B).
Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.51B (2022), $3.57B (2023), $5.57B (2024), $5.46B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $17.78B (2022), $18.73B (2023), $20.98B (2024), $23.67B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $16.37 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $776.30 (EPS CAGR 33.5% capped at 20%). Current price $429.64; price is 44.7% below the model value.
FCF/share = $18.481, stage 1 growth = 10.8% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $94.44, PV of terminal value = $281.97, DCF value = $376.41. Current price $429.64; price is 14.1% above the model value.
Graham value $776.30 (price is 44.7% below the model value); DCF value $376.41 (price is 14.1% above the model value).
P/B of 4.02; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.
Business quality
A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 6 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 7.4%, highest 55.2%.
Gross margin, each year
Between 66.4% and 73.7% over 10 years (a range of 7.3 points).
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 11, 2026
The latest 10-K has no section headed “Competition” that could be quoted. Open the filing to read how the company describes its markets.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $28.08B paid out against $17.10B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $11.53B to $13.58B, up 17.8%, 1.8x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.33B to 0.30B, down 9.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $16.37, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 33.5%)
IV = $776.30
Current price $429.64 vs Graham value $776.30 — price is 44.7% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $18.481
Stage 1 growth = 10.8% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $20.477 → PV $18.616
Y2: $22.689 → PV $18.751
Y3: $25.139 → PV $18.887
Y4: $27.854 → PV $19.025
Y5: $30.862 → PV $19.163
Stage 1 PV sum = $94.44
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $454.12
PV of terminal value = $281.97
DCF value = $376.41
Current price $429.64 vs DCF value $376.41 — price is 14.1% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $429.64. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice
The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.