STLD Value Scorecard - Steel Dynamics

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

31/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $20.92 (2022), $14.64 (2023), $9.84 (2024), $7.99 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 47.5% (2022), 27.6% (2023), 17.2% (2024), 13.2% (2025). Median 22.4%, lowest 13.2%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 10.3%: operating income of $1.48B divided by $14.30B of capital (total assets $16.42B minus current liabilities $2.12B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 7.8%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 14.7%, operating margin 11.5%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.47; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $4.39B, total cash $567.71M).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $3.55B (2022), $1.86B (2023), -$23.50M (2024), $501.51M (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $11.38B (2022), $13.55B (2023), $14.80B (2024), $15.69B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $11.03 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $91.67 (EPS CAGR -26.1% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $240.54; price is 162.4% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $1.634, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -1.7% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $6.19, PV of terminal value = $14.93, DCF value = $21.12. Current price $240.54; price is 1038.8% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $91.67 (price is 162.4% above the model value); DCF value $21.12 (price is 1038.8% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 3.67; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 6 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 10.3%, highest 42.0%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 13.2% and 29.1% over 10 years (a range of 15.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Scrap is a global commodity influenced by conditions in a number of industrialized and emerging markets throughout Asia, Europe, and North America. The markets for scrap metals are highly competitive, both in the purchase of raw or unprocessed scrap, and the sale of processed scrap. With regard to the purchase of unprocessed scrap, we compete with numerous independent recyclers, as well as smaller scrap companies

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $6.45B paid out against $5.89B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $3.07B to $4.21B, up 37.1%, 2.0x EBITDA (pass: at most 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.17B to 0.14B, down 16.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $11.03, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -26.1%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $91.67
    Current price $240.54 vs Graham value $91.67 — price is 162.4% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $1.634
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -1.7%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $1.634 → PV $1.485
      Y2: $1.634 → PV $1.350
      Y3: $1.634 → PV $1.228
      Y4: $1.634 → PV $1.116
      Y5: $1.634 → PV $1.015
    Stage 1 PV sum = $6.19
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $24.04
    PV of terminal value = $14.93
    DCF value = $21.12
    Current price $240.54 vs DCF value $21.12 — price is 1038.8% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $240.54. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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