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Research · S&P 500 · Information Technology

STX · Seagate Technology

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

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Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence

35/55
moderate value score11 of 12 checks scored

11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROE Trend) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: -$2.56 (2023), $1.58 (2024), $6.77 (2025), $13.90 (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

Not scored

Shareholder equity is negative in 2023, 2024, 2025, so ROE has no meaningful value and is not scored.

ROIC

5/5

ROIC of 59.8%: operating income of $4.09B divided by $6.84B of capital (total assets $9.97B minus current liabilities $3.13B), fiscal year to Jul 3, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores above 20% as 5.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 26.1%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 45.6%, operating margin 43.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

2/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.80; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $3.90B, total cash $1.70B).

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $626.00M (2023), $664.00M (2024), $818.00M (2025), $3.10B (2026). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$8.67B (2023), -$8.96B (2024), -$8.15B (2025), -$5.91B (2026). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

3/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $13.90 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $659.17 (EPS CAGR 196.6% capped at 20%). Current price $639.01; price is 3.1% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $8.548, stage 1 growth = 20.0% (revenue CAGR 36.4% capped at 20%) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $55.91, PV of terminal value = $194.33, DCF value = $250.24. Current price $639.01; price is 155.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $659.17 (price is 3.1% below the model value); DCF value $250.24 (price is 155.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 66.88; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 8 of 10 years (2017-2026); lowest -6.9%, highest 59.8%.

2017: 15.9%, 2018: 26.3%, 2019: 22.4%, 2020: 20.9%, 2021: 25.9%, 2022: 36.3%, 2023: -6.9%, 2024: 9.7%, 2025: 35.2%, 2026: 59.8%

Gross margin, each year

Between 18.3% and 45.6% over 10 years (a range of 27.3 points).

2017: 29.5%, 2018: 30.1%, 2019: 28.2%, 2020: 27.0%, 2021: 27.3%, 2022: 29.7%, 2023: 18.3%, 2024: 23.4%, 2025: 35.2%, 2026: 45.6%

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Aug 4, 2026

Our global competitors include HDD manufacturers such as Western Digital Corporation and Toshiba Electronics Devices & Storage Corporation along with NAND flash suppliers that provide and enable alternative storage technologies, as well as storage systems and solutions providers. Customers evaluate these solutions based on a variety of factors, including capacity, performance, reliability, product quality, total

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2023-2026: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $2.98B paid out against $5.21B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $5.45B to $3.86B, down 29.2%, 0.9x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.21B to 0.23B, up 9.5% (fail: up more than 2%). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $13.90, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 196.6%)
    IV = $659.17
    Current price $639.01 vs Graham value $659.17 — price is 3.1% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $8.548
    Stage 1 growth = 20.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g capped at 20.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was 36.4%)
      Y1: $10.258 → PV $9.325
      Y2: $12.309 → PV $10.173
      Y3: $14.771 → PV $11.098
      Y4: $17.725 → PV $12.106
      Y5: $21.270 → PV $13.207
    Stage 1 PV sum = $55.91
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $312.97
    PV of terminal value = $194.33
    DCF value = $250.24
    Current price $639.01 vs DCF value $250.24 — price is 155.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $639.01. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.