SWK Value Scorecard - Stanley Black & Decker

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

31/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $6.76 (2022), -$2.07 (2023), $1.95 (2024), $2.65 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 10.9% (2022), -3.4% (2023), 3.4% (2024), 4.4% (2025). Median 3.9%, lowest -3.4%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 5.8%: earnings before interest and taxes of $934.20M (pre-tax income $417.90M plus interest expense $516.30M; the 10-K's financial data has no standard operating income figure) divided by $16.00B of capital (total assets $21.24B minus current liabilities $5.25B), fiscal year to Jan 3, 2026, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 4.1%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 32.2%, operating margin 8.4%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.58; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $5.21B, total cash $592.40M).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$1.99B (2022), $852.60M (2023), $753.00M (2024), $687.90M (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $9.33B (2022), $8.54B (2023), $8.34B (2024), $8.24B (2026). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

2/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $4.09 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $73.98 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $92.48; price is 25.0% above the model value.

DCF Value

4/5

FCF/share = $9.397, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -2.1% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $35.62, PV of terminal value = $85.85, DCF value = $121.47. Current price $92.48; price is 23.9% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $73.98 (price is 25.0% above the model value); DCF value $121.47 (price is 23.9% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

3/5

P/B of 1.56; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2026); lowest 1.0%, highest 14.2%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 24.9% and 37.2% over 10 years (a range of 12.3 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026

The Company competes on the basis of its reputation for innovation and product quality, its well-known brands, its commitment to customer service, its strong customer relationships, the breadth of its product lines focused on core end-user segments, and customer value propositions. The Company encounters active competition in the Tools & Outdoor and Engineered Fastening segments from both larger and smaller

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. For a year whose 10-K financial data has no standard operating income figure, earnings before interest and taxes (pre-tax income plus interest expense) is used. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $5.07B paid out against $303.60M of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $7.57B to $6.00B, down 20.8%, 4.1x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.15B to 0.16B, up 1.3% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $4.09, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $73.98
    Current price $92.48 vs Graham value $73.98 — price is 25.0% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $9.397
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -2.1%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $9.397 → PV $8.542
      Y2: $9.397 → PV $7.766
      Y3: $9.397 → PV $7.060
      Y4: $9.397 → PV $6.418
      Y5: $9.397 → PV $5.835
    Stage 1 PV sum = $35.62
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $138.26
    PV of terminal value = $85.85
    DCF value = $121.47
    Current price $92.48 vs DCF value $121.47 — price is 23.9% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $92.48. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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