T Value Scorecard - AT&T

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

44/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: -$1.13 (2022), $1.97 (2023), $1.49 (2024), $3.04 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

3/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -8.3% (2022), 13.7% (2023), 10.3% (2024), 19.8% (2025). Median 12.0%, lowest -8.3%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 6.6%: operating income of $24.16B divided by $366.42B of capital (total assets $420.20B minus current liabilities $53.78B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 16.9%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 59.7%, operating margin 24.8%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

3/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.29; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $165.76B, total cash $17.57B).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $12.40B (2022), $20.46B (2023), $18.51B (2024), $19.44B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

5/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$19.41B (2022), -$5.01B (2023), $1.87B (2024), $15.77B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Valuation models

Graham IV

5/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $3.03 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $143.69 (EPS CAGR 24.2% capped at 20%). Current price $23.44; price is 83.7% below the model value.

DCF Value

2/5

FCF/share = $1.480, stage 1 growth = 1.3% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $5.82, PV of terminal value = $14.42, DCF value = $20.24. Current price $23.44; price is 15.8% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $143.69 (price is 83.7% below the model value); DCF value $20.24 (price is 15.8% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

4/5

P/B of 1.46; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -1.3%, highest 6.7%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 9, 2026

Competition continues to increase for communications and digital services from traditional and nontraditional competitors. Technological advances have expanded the types and uses of services and products available. In addition, lack of or a reduced level of regulation of comparable legacy services has lowered costs for alternative communications service providers. As a result, we face continuing competition as well

The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

5/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $42.26B paid out against $70.81B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $154.68B to $155.04B, up 0.2%, 2.8x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 7.13B to 6.88B, down 3.5% (pass). 4 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 5.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $3.03, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 24.2%)
    IV = $143.69
    Current price $23.44 vs Graham value $143.69 — price is 83.7% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $1.480
    Stage 1 growth = 1.3% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $1.499 → PV $1.363
      Y2: $1.519 → PV $1.255
      Y3: $1.539 → PV $1.156
      Y4: $1.559 → PV $1.065
      Y5: $1.579 → PV $0.980
    Stage 1 PV sum = $5.82
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $23.23
    PV of terminal value = $14.42
    DCF value = $20.24
    Current price $23.44 vs DCF value $20.24 — price is 15.8% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $23.44. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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