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Research · S&P 500 · Financials
TRV · Travelers Companies
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5 where the data allows, plus moat evidence
49/55
high value score11 of 12 checks scored11 of the 12 checks that carry a score were scored from the data available. 1 could not be scored (ROIC) and was left out, so the score is out of 55 instead of 60. The label uses the same share of the available points as for a full scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence from the filings, without a score.
Earnings & returns
EPS Trend
5/5Diluted EPS: $11.77 (2022), $12.79 (2023), $21.47 (2024), $27.43 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
ROE Trend
4/5ROE (net income / common equity): 13.1% (2022), 11.9% (2023), 17.8% (2024), 19.0% (2025). Median 15.4%, lowest 11.9%; the framework scores a median 15-20% as 4.
ROIC
Not scoredROIC not available: the 10-K financial data filed with the SEC has no standard operating income figure (or pre-tax income and interest expense), total assets and current liabilities for the same fiscal year.
Profit Margins
4/5Net margin of 17.0%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 34.9%, operating margin 20.0%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
4/5Debt-to-equity of 0.34; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $9.81B, total cash $6.18B).
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $6.46B (2022), $7.71B (2023), $9.07B (2024), $10.61B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
5/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $43.52B (2022), $45.59B (2023), $49.63B (2024), $54.93B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Valuation models
Graham IV
5/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $37.68 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $1,786.87 (EPS CAGR 46.4% capped at 20%). Current price $389.54; price is 78.2% below the model value.
DCF Value
5/5FCF/share = $75.847, stage 1 growth = 8.6% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $365.00, PV of terminal value = $1,046.80, DCF value = $1,411.79. Current price $389.54; price is 72.4% below the model value.
Margin of Safety
5/5Graham value $1,786.87 (price is 78.2% below the model value); DCF value $1,411.79 (price is 72.4% below the model value).
Price-to-Book
3/5P/B of 2.45; the framework scores 1.5-3.0 as 3.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Not available: the 10-K financial data has no standard figures for operating income, total assets and current liabilities in the same years, as is common for banks, insurers and REITs.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 12, 2026
The insurance industry is represented in the commercial marketplace by many insurance companies of varying size as well as other entities offering risk alternatives, such as self-insured retentions or captive programs. Market competition operates within the insurance regulatory framework to set the price charged for insurance products and the levels of coverage and service provided. A company’s success in the competitive commercial insurance landscape is largely measured by its ability to profitably provide insurance and services, including claims handling and risk management, at prices and terms that retain existing customers and attract new customers, as well as its financial strength. See “Item 1A—Risk Factors—The intense competition that we face, including with respect to attracting and retaining employees, and the impact of innovation, technological change, including with respect to artificial intelligence, and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and our profitability.”
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
4/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $11.04B paid out against $33.86B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $7.29B to $9.27B, up 27.1% (fail: up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.23B to 0.22B, down 6.3% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $37.68, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 46.4%)
IV = $1,786.87
Current price $389.54 vs Graham value $1,786.87 — price is 78.2% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $75.847
Stage 1 growth = 8.6% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $82.370 → PV $74.881
Y2: $89.453 → PV $73.928
Y3: $97.146 → PV $72.988
Y4: $105.501 → PV $72.059
Y5: $114.574 → PV $71.142
Stage 1 PV sum = $365.00
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $1,685.88
PV of terminal value = $1,046.80
DCF value = $1,411.79
Current price $389.54 vs DCF value $1,411.79 — price is 72.4% below the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $389.54. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. A check that cannot be scored from the available data is shown as not scored and left out of the composite score. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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