TSN Value Scorecard - Tyson Foods

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

30/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $8.92 (2022), -$1.87 (2023), $2.25 (2024), $1.33 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 16.4% (2022), -3.6% (2023), 4.4% (2024), 2.6% (2025). Median 3.5%, lowest -3.6%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of 3.6%: operating income of $1.10B divided by $30.27B of capital (total assets $36.66B minus current liabilities $6.39B), fiscal year to Sep 27, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

2/5

Net margin of 1.0%; the framework scores 0-5% as 2; gross margin 6.6%, operating margin 2.7%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.44; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $8.01B, total cash $740.00M).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $800.00M (2022), -$187.00M (2023), $1.46B (2024), $1.18B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $20.08B (2022), $18.76B (2023), $18.87B (2024), $18.65B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $1.62 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $29.30 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $54.90; price is 87.3% above the model value.

DCF Value

4/5

FCF/share = $4.227, stage 1 growth = 1.5% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $16.71, PV of terminal value = $41.61, DCF value = $58.32. Current price $54.90; price is 5.9% below the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $29.30 (price is 87.3% above the model value); DCF value $58.32 (price is 5.9% below the model value).

Price-to-Book

4/5

P/B of 1.07; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -1.3%, highest 14.7%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 5.0% and 13.9% over 10 years (a range of 8.9 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Nov 10, 2025

Our food products compete with those of other food producers and processors and certain prepared food manufacturers. Additionally, our food products compete in markets around the world. We seek to achieve a leading market position for our products via our principal marketing and competitive strategy, which includes: • identifying target markets for value-added products; • concentrating production, sales and

The opening of the company’s “COMPETITION” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $4.00B paid out against $3.25B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $8.32B to $8.83B, up 6.1%, 3.4x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.36B to 0.35B, down 1.9% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $1.62, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $29.30
    Current price $54.90 vs Graham value $29.30 — price is 87.3% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $4.227
    Stage 1 growth = 1.5% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $4.291 → PV $3.901
      Y2: $4.355 → PV $3.599
      Y3: $4.421 → PV $3.321
      Y4: $4.487 → PV $3.065
      Y5: $4.554 → PV $2.828
    Stage 1 PV sum = $16.71
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $67.01
    PV of terminal value = $41.61
    DCF value = $58.32
    Current price $54.90 vs DCF value $58.32 — price is 5.9% below the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $54.90. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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