TWLO Value Scorecard - Twilio

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

31/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: -$6.86 (2022), -$5.54 (2023), -$0.66 (2024), $0.21 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

1/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -11.9% (2022), -10.4% (2023), -1.4% (2024), 0.4% (2025). Median -5.9%, lowest -11.9%; the framework scores a median 5% or less as 1.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of 1.8%: operating income of $157.80M divided by $8.88B of capital (total assets $9.77B minus current liabilities $887.01M), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

5/5

Net margin of 20.6%; the framework scores above 20% as 5; gross margin 48.6%, operating margin 7.8%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

5/5

Net cash: total debt $1.07B, total cash $2.66B. The framework scores a net cash position as 5.

Free Cash Flow

5/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$334.55M (2022), $363.52M (2023), $657.46M (2024), $945.43M (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$3.38B (2022), -$5.07B (2023), -$7.52B (2024), -$8.34B (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.23 x (8.5 + 2 x 5.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $130.78 (EPS CAGR unavailable, default 5% applied). Current price $244.37; price is 86.9% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $6.216, stage 1 growth = 10.4% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $31.42, PV of terminal value = $93.14, DCF value = $124.57. Current price $244.37; price is 96.2% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $130.78 (price is 86.9% above the model value); DCF value $124.57 (price is 96.2% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 4.18; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest -17.8%, highest 1.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 47.4% and 56.5% over 10 years (a range of 9.1 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026

The markets for our products are rapidly evolving and are increasingly competitive. Our competitors are primarily (i) communications platform-as-a-service (“CPaaS”) companies that offer communications products and applications, (ii) regional network service providers that offer limited developer functionality on top of their own physical infrastructure, (iii) customer relationship management and customer experience

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in 3 of 4 years (fail); $3.87B paid out against $1.63B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $1.24B to $1.08B, down 12.7%, 2.9x EBITDA (pass: not up more than 10%); shares outstanding 0.19B to 0.15B, down 18.0% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.23, g = 5.0%, Y = 4.5
    IV = $130.78
    Current price $244.37 vs Graham value $130.78 — price is 86.9% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $6.216
    Stage 1 growth = 10.4% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $6.863 → PV $6.239
      Y2: $7.577 → PV $6.262
      Y3: $8.365 → PV $6.284
      Y4: $9.234 → PV $6.307
      Y5: $10.195 → PV $6.330
    Stage 1 PV sum = $31.42
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $150.01
    PV of terminal value = $93.14
    DCF value = $124.57
    Current price $244.37 vs DCF value $124.57 — price is 96.2% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $244.37. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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