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Research · S&P 500 · Industrials

UPS · United Parcel Service

The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.

Price · last 3 months · daily close

UPS price

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Daily closing prices via yfinance. Quotes are delayed. Past prices are not a guarantee of future results.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

29/60
low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $13.20 (2022), $7.80 (2023), $6.75 (2024), $6.56 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 58.4% (2022), 38.8% (2023), 34.6% (2024), 34.3% (2025). Median 36.7%, lowest 34.3%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 13.7%: operating income of $7.87B divided by $57.47B of capital (total assets $73.09B minus current liabilities $15.62B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 5.1%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 22.4%, operating margin 9.1%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

2/5

Debt-to-equity of 1.90; the framework scores 1.5-2.5 as 2 (total debt $28.67B, total cash $4.65B).

Free Cash Flow

2/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $9.34B (2022), $5.08B (2023), $6.21B (2024), $4.76B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $21.33B (2022), $21.05B (2023), $20.88B (2024), $20.15B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $5.38 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $44.71 (EPS CAGR -8.3% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $97.48; price is 118.0% above the model value.

DCF Value

3/5

FCF/share = $7.465, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -1.3% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $28.30, PV of terminal value = $68.20, DCF value = $96.50. Current price $97.48; price is 1.0% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

2/5

Graham value $44.71 (price is 118.0% above the model value); DCF value $96.50 (price is 1.0% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 5.51; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 9 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 13.7%, highest 26.7%.

2016: 26.7%, 2017: 23.0%, 2018: 19.5%, 2019: 18.4%, 2020: 16.9%, 2021: 24.7%, 2022: 24.7%, 2023: 17.2%, 2024: 15.8%, 2025: 13.7%

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 17, 2026

Our competitive strengths include: Global Smart Logistics Network . We believe that our integrated global air and ground network is the broadest in the industry. We provide all types of package services (air, ground, domestic, international, commercial and residential) through a single pickup and delivery network that is configured to meet customers' needs. Our sophisticated systems, including our RFID-enabled Smart

The opening of the company’s “Competitive Strengths” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $23.14B paid out against $25.39B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $23.52B to $28.59B, up 21.6%, 2.4x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.86B to 0.85B, down 1.2% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $5.38, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -8.3%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $44.71
    Current price $97.48 vs Graham value $44.71 — price is 118.0% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $7.465
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -1.3%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $7.465 → PV $6.786
      Y2: $7.465 → PV $6.170
      Y3: $7.465 → PV $5.609
      Y4: $7.465 → PV $5.099
      Y5: $7.465 → PV $4.635
    Stage 1 PV sum = $28.30
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $109.84
    PV of terminal value = $68.20
    DCF value = $96.50
    Current price $97.48 vs DCF value $96.50 — price is 1.0% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $97.48. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

Recent headlines · third-party publishers · not investment advice

In the news

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The 8 newest headlines whose title names the company, shown automatically and never chosen by Valerius. From third-party publishers via Yahoo Finance, linked to the source. Valerius doesn't write or endorse them. Not investment advice.