VST Value Scorecard - Vistra Corp.

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

27/60

low-moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

4/5

Diluted EPS: -$3.15 (2022), $3.82 (2023), $7.26 (2024), $2.22 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

ROE Trend

5/5

ROE (net income / common equity): -47.5% (2022), 47.4% (2023), 79.7% (2024), 28.7% (2025). Median 38.1%, lowest -47.5%; the framework scores a median above 20% as 5.

ROIC

2/5

ROIC of 6.4%: operating income of $1.91B divided by $29.74B of capital (total assets $41.55B minus current liabilities $11.81B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 5-10% as 2.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 11.6%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 38.3%, operating margin 13.8%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

1/5

Debt-to-equity of 3.73; the framework scores above 2.5 as 1 (total debt $20.51B, total cash $435.00M).

Free Cash Flow

3/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): -$816.00M (2022), $3.78B (2023), $2.48B (2024), $1.32B (2025). It ended above 2022 but did not rise in 2 of 3 years; the framework scores that as 3.

Retained Earnings

1/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): -$3.64B (2022), -$2.61B (2023), -$454.00M (2024), -$12.00M (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $5.93 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $49.28 (EPS CAGR -23.7% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $152.02; price is 208.5% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $0.111, stage 1 growth = 9.6% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $0.55, PV of terminal value = $1.60, DCF value = $2.15. Current price $152.02; price is 6986.4% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $49.28 (price is 208.5% above the model value); DCF value $2.15 (price is 6986.4% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

1/5

P/B of 16.99; the framework scores above 5.0 as 1.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 9 years (2017-2025); lowest -6.4%, highest 13.9%.

Gross margin, each year

Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026

Competition in the markets in which we operate is impacted by electricity and fuel prices, congestion along the power grid, subsidies provided by state and federal governments for new and existing generation facilities, including renewables generation and battery ESS, new market entrants, construction of new generation assets, technological advances in power generation, the actions of environmental and other

The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $7.38B paid out against $6.76B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $13.34B to $20.07B, up 50.5%, 4.0x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.39B to 0.34B, down 13.3% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $5.93, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -23.7%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $49.28
    Current price $152.02 vs Graham value $49.28 — price is 208.5% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $0.111
    Stage 1 growth = 9.6% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $0.121 → PV $0.110
      Y2: $0.133 → PV $0.110
      Y3: $0.146 → PV $0.109
      Y4: $0.160 → PV $0.109
      Y5: $0.175 → PV $0.109
    Stage 1 PV sum = $0.55
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $2.57
    PV of terminal value = $1.60
    DCF value = $2.15
    Current price $152.02 vs DCF value $2.15 — price is 6986.4% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $152.02. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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