WAB Value Scorecard - Wabtec

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

38/60

moderate value score

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

5/5

Diluted EPS: $3.46 (2022), $4.53 (2023), $6.04 (2024), $6.83 (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.

ROE Trend

2/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 6.3% (2022), 7.8% (2023), 10.5% (2024), 10.5% (2025). Median 9.1%, lowest 6.3%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.

ROIC

3/5

ROIC of 10.6%: operating income of $1.79B divided by $16.92B of capital (total assets $22.07B minus current liabilities $5.15B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.

Profit Margins

4/5

Net margin of 10.6%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 35.7%, operating margin 19.2%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.62; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $6.94B, total cash $660.00M).

Free Cash Flow

4/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $889.00M (2022), $1.01B (2023), $1.63B (2024), $1.50B (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $4.58B (2022), $5.27B (2023), $6.18B (2024), $3.88B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

4/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $7.44 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $352.82 (EPS CAGR 22.8% capped at 20%). Current price $286.82; price is 18.7% below the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $6.520, stage 1 growth = 7.4% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $30.36, PV of terminal value = $85.13, DCF value = $115.49. Current price $286.82; price is 148.3% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

3/5

Graham value $352.82 (price is 18.7% below the model value); DCF value $115.49 (price is 148.3% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

2/5

P/B of 4.33; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 4.2%, highest 10.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 27.4% and 34.1% over 10 years (a range of 6.7 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

Through both organic growth and strategic acquisitions, Wabtec has developed the following competitive strengths: • Iconic legacy and strong reputation with a history of over 150 years of innovation . Wabtec has been transforming the rail landscape through various innovations and technologies for over 150 years. We have a long history of advancing technologies to meet customer needs and have been recognized for the

The opening of the company’s “Competitive Strengths” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

4/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $2.75B paid out against $5.03B of free cash flow (pass); total debt $4.00B to $5.54B, up 38.5%, 2.4x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.18B to 0.17B, down 5.8% (pass). 3 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 4.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $7.44, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
    g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 22.8%)
    IV = $352.82
    Current price $286.82 vs Graham value $352.82 — price is 18.7% below the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $6.520
    Stage 1 growth = 7.4% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
      Y1: $7.003 → PV $6.366
      Y2: $7.521 → PV $6.216
      Y3: $8.078 → PV $6.069
      Y4: $8.676 → PV $5.925
      Y5: $9.317 → PV $5.785
    Stage 1 PV sum = $30.36
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $137.10
    PV of terminal value = $85.13
    DCF value = $115.49
    Current price $286.82 vs DCF value $115.49 — price is 148.3% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $286.82. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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