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Research · S&P 500 · Financials
WTW · Willis Towers Watson
The numbers, the scorecard and what analysts say, with the source for each. Information, not advice.
Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-18
13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence
37/60
moderate value scoreEarnings & returns
EPS Trend
4/5Diluted EPS: $8.98 (2022), $9.95 (2023), -$0.96 (2024), $16.26 (2025). It rose every year but one and ended above 2022; the framework scores that as 4.
ROE Trend
3/5ROE (net income / common equity): 10.1% (2022), 11.1% (2023), -1.2% (2024), 20.1% (2025). Median 10.6%, lowest -1.2%; the framework scores a median 10-15% as 3.
ROIC
3/5ROIC of 14.4%: operating income of $2.23B divided by $15.53B of capital (total assets $29.53B minus current liabilities $14.00B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores 10-15% as 3.
Profit Margins
4/5Net margin of 15.5%; the framework scores 10-20% as 4; gross margin 42.5%, operating margin 17.6%.
Balance sheet & cash
Debt-to-Equity
3/5Debt-to-equity of 0.91; the framework scores 0.8-1.5 as 3 (total debt $7.10B, total cash $1.66B).
Free Cash Flow
5/5Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $608.00M (2022), $1.10B (2023), $1.27B (2024), $1.55B (2025). It rose every year; the framework scores that as 5.
Retained Earnings
1/5Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $1.76B (2022), $1.47B (2023), $109.00M (2024), -$296.00M (2025). The latest balance is negative (an accumulated deficit); the framework scores that as 1.
Valuation models
Graham IV
5/5IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $16.16 x (8.5 + 2 x 20.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $766.34 (EPS CAGR 27.8% capped at 20%). Current price $315.49; price is 58.8% below the model value.
DCF Value
1/5FCF/share = $15.243, stage 1 growth = 1.2% for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $59.76, PV of terminal value = $147.82, DCF value = $207.58. Current price $315.49; price is 52.0% above the model value.
Margin of Safety
3/5Graham value $766.34 (price is 58.8% below the model value); DCF value $207.58 (price is 52.0% above the model value).
Price-to-Book
2/5P/B of 3.82; the framework scores 3.0-5.0 as 2.
Business quality
Moat Evidence
Not scoredA moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.
Return on capital, each year
Above 15% in 0 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 2.1%, highest 14.4%.
Gross margin, each year
Not reported: the filings don’t state a gross profit or cost of revenue figure, as is common for oil and gas companies, banks and insurers.
Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
We face competition in all fields in which we operate, based on factors including global capability, product breadth, innovation, quality of service and price. We compete with companies such as Aon plc, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Brown & Brown Inc., Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation, Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. (‘Marsh & McLennan’) and Robert Half International Inc., as well as with numerous specialty, regional and local firms. Competition on premium rates has also exacerbated the pressures caused by a continuing reduction in demand in some classes of business. For example, rather than purchase additional insurance through brokers, some insureds have been retaining a greater proportion of their risk portfolios than previously. Industrial and commercial companies increasingly rely upon their own subsidiary insurance companies, known as captive insurance companies, self-insurance pools, risk retention groups, mutual insurance companies and other mechanisms for funding their risks, rather than buy insurance. Additional competitive pressures have arisen and are expected to continue to arise from the entry and expansion of new market participants, such as banks, accounting firms, new brokers and insurance carriers themselves, offering risk management or transfer services. The human capital and risk management consulting industries are highly competitive.
The opening of the company’s “Competition” section in its 10-K, quoted word for word, not summarized or edited. It is the company’s own description, not Valerius’s view, and may include the company’s expectations. Open the filing.
Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.
Capital Allocation
3/5Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $8.51B paid out against $4.52B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $5.48B to $6.90B, up 26.0%, 2.6x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.11B to 0.10B, down 10.9% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.
Filings
Company notices to the SEC
Not scoredThree kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.
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These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.
How the Graham and DCF values were calculated
Graham Formula:
IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
EPS = $16.16, g = 20.0%, Y = 4.5
g capped at 20.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was 27.8%)
IV = $766.34
Current price $315.49 vs Graham value $766.34 — price is 58.8% below the model value.
DCF:
FCF/share = $15.243
Stage 1 growth = 1.2% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
Y1: $15.426 → PV $14.023
Y2: $15.611 → PV $12.901
Y3: $15.798 → PV $11.869
Y4: $15.988 → PV $10.920
Y5: $16.180 → PV $10.046
Stage 1 PV sum = $59.76
Terminal value at end of Y5 = $238.07
PV of terminal value = $147.82
DCF value = $207.58
Current price $315.49 vs DCF value $207.58 — price is 52.0% above the model value.Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $315.49. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.
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