WY Value Scorecard - Weyerhaeuser

Value Scorecard · run 2026-10-19

13 value checks: 12 scored 1 to 5, plus moat evidence

24/60

low-moderate value score

The REIT version isn't used for this company: its 10-K filings have no Nareit FFO line. Its checks are the standard ones, which don't fully fit how a REIT works.

Earnings & returns

EPS Trend

1/5

Diluted EPS: $2.53 (2022), $1.15 (2023), $0.54 (2024), $0.45 (2025). The latest figure is half the 2022 figure or less; the framework scores that as 1.

ROE Trend

2/5

ROE (net income / common equity): 17.5% (2022), 8.2% (2023), 4.1% (2024), 3.4% (2025). Median 6.1%, lowest 3.4%; the framework scores a median 5-10% as 2.

ROIC

1/5

ROIC of 4.8%: operating income of $731.00M divided by $15.34B of capital (total assets $16.61B minus current liabilities $1.28B), fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, as filed in the 10-K (SEC EDGAR). The framework scores below 5% as 1.

Profit Margins

3/5

Net margin of 6.9%; the framework scores 5-10% as 3; gross margin 14.5%, operating margin 8.0%.

Balance sheet & cash

Debt-to-Equity

4/5

Debt-to-equity of 0.58; the framework scores 0.3-0.8 as 4 (total debt $5.45B, total cash $527.00M).

Free Cash Flow

1/5

Free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure): $2.36B (2022), $753.00M (2023), $341.00M (2024), -$381.00M (2025). The latest figure is at or below zero; the framework scores that as 1.

Retained Earnings

2/5

Retained earnings, as filed in the 10-Ks (SEC EDGAR): $2.39B (2022), $2.01B (2023), $1.72B (2024), $1.43B (2025). It ended at or below 2022; the framework scores that as 2.

Valuation models

Graham IV

1/5

IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y) = $0.65 x (8.5 + 2 x 0.0) x (4.4 / 4.5) = $5.40 (EPS CAGR -37.4% floored at 0%; the formula returns a negative value below -4.25% growth). Current price $19.20; price is 255.4% above the model value.

DCF Value

1/5

FCF/share = $0.019, stage 1 growth = 0.0% (revenue CAGR -5.1% floored at 0%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline) for 5 years, terminal growth = 3%, discount rate = 10%. Stage 1 PV = $0.07, PV of terminal value = $0.17, DCF value = $0.24. Current price $19.20; price is 7756.6% above the model value.

Margin of Safety

1/5

Graham value $5.40 (price is 255.4% above the model value); DCF value $0.24 (price is 7756.6% above the model value).

Price-to-Book

4/5

P/B of 1.46; the framework scores 1.0-1.5 as 4.

Business quality

Moat Evidence

Not scored

A moat (a brand, a network, switching costs, patents, scale, a licence) is not a number in the filings, so Valerius doesn’t score it. Below are the figures and the words moat analysis starts from, from the company’s own 10-K filings. The conclusion is yours.

Return on capital, each year

Above 15% in 2 of 10 years (2016-2025); lowest 4.2%, highest 21.8%.

Gross margin, each year

Between 14.8% and 40.2% over 10 years (a range of 25.4 points).

Competition, in the company’s own words · 10-K filed Feb 13, 2026

The latest 10-K has no section headed “Competition” that could be quoted. Open the filing to read how the company describes its markets.

Return on capital = operating income / (total assets − current liabilities), the ROIC row’s definition; 15% is the framework’s return threshold. Gross margin = gross profit / revenue. Both from each year’s 10-K via SEC EDGAR. Moat analysis commonly looks at whether returns and margins held up over many years. These figures don’t say whether the company has an advantage, what it is, or whether it will last.

Capital Allocation

3/5

Capital allocation, 2022-2025: dividends or buybacks paid in every year (pass); $5.11B paid out against $3.08B of free cash flow (fail: paid out more than free cash flow); total debt $5.08B to $5.60B, up 10.3%, 5.4x EBITDA (fail: up more than 10% and above 2x EBITDA); shares outstanding 0.73B to 0.72B, down 1.7% (pass). 2 of 4 tests passed; the framework scores that as 3.

Filings

Company notices to the SEC

Not scored

Three kinds of event the company reported to the SEC in the last 5 years, from its filings on SEC EDGAR.

These are events the company reported to the SEC. An auditor change or a late filing can have many causes; each date links to the filing, where the company explains it. Valerius does not score these.

How the Graham and DCF values were calculated

  Graham Formula:
    IV = EPS x (8.5 + 2g) x (4.4 / Y)
    EPS = $0.65, g = 0.0%, Y = 4.5
    g floored at 0.0% (3-year EPS CAGR was -37.4%; below -4.25% the formula returns a negative value)
    IV = $5.40
    Current price $19.20 vs Graham value $5.40 — price is 255.4% above the model value.

  DCF:
    FCF/share = $0.019
    Stage 1 growth = 0.0% for 5 years | terminal growth = 3.0% | discount rate = 10.0%
    Stage 1 g floored at 0.0% (3-year revenue CAGR was -5.1%; the company is valued as if it does not grow rather than extrapolating the decline)
      Y1: $0.019 → PV $0.017
      Y2: $0.019 → PV $0.016
      Y3: $0.019 → PV $0.014
      Y4: $0.019 → PV $0.013
      Y5: $0.019 → PV $0.012
    Stage 1 PV sum = $0.07
    Terminal value at end of Y5 = $0.28
    PV of terminal value = $0.17
    DCF value = $0.24
    Current price $19.20 vs DCF value $0.24 — price is 7756.6% above the model value.

Data from yfinance summary figures and financial statements, and from the company’s 10-K filings via SEC EDGAR; computed at a price of $19.20. Every score is calculated from the figures by the framework’s fixed rules, and the explanation beside it is generated from the same figures: Graham value, DCF value, margin of safety, ROIC, profit margins, debt-to-equity, price-to-book, EPS trend, ROE trend, free cash flow, retained earnings and capital allocation. No AI is involved in this scorecard. The moat is shown as evidence, without a score. Read each score with the figures beside it. Intrinsic value calculations are model outputs based on stated assumptions, not predictions.

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